So, hypothetically, if the Line is , I could set my odds for "" and anyone who still wants to take my line can then bet against me? Australia is home to countless betting agencies offering action on just about every sport on the planet. No matter where you live, youre only a 10 minute drive from a betting terminal, not to mention phone services. As i understand it, sports betting is only legal in some U. S juristictions. Do you do most of your business in Vegas?
I'm guessing you mean 'Fun' as different or unique. Get 3 buddies together and list the teams. Draw the 4 names out of a hat. You guys all write how much you think each team will win by or lose by on a piece of paper. It's like a silent auction.
Highest Bidder wins. Another method, agree upon a number, say 10 points. You and your buddies have to pick the Final 4, but also use up the 10 points. Miami was dealing with minor injuries and I felt like the line would move in that direction.
Miami went from an 8 point favorite to a 2 point underdog. To say I shit myself would be an understatement. I knew the line would move, but a 10 point swing is unheard of. Not too often do you get better than 3-to-1 odds on a favorite with that much money in the ring.
I'll usually do this when I'm going to a game, or watching a big game with friends Or if I'm doing something boring with the girlfriend to give me an excuse to check my phone for scores every 2 minutes. Memphis was undefeated 1, Tennessee was 2.
They ended up winning in thrilling fashion. The funny this is, he couldn't watch the game because he had to work a 4 hour shift for minimum wage. I asked him what he would do if he lost, and he just said, "I never thought about that. I'm just getting into sports betting and really don't know where start. Basically this has to do with Risk Management, and the fact that most people have no idea how to figure out the probability of sequential events.
What are your go-to sports? I know that it must be hard to find meaningful differences between the lines of sports books for major sports and events. What smaller sports tend to give you the ability to do what you do? Believe it or not, College Basketball has given me some great lines recently. It's a combination of people having little to no knowledge of the Small schools playing Think Florida Gulf Coast combined with the sheer magnitude of frantic March Madness Betting.
I have no statistics to back up this claim, but I'd be willing to bet the average March Madness Tourney Game gets at least 10xx the amount of action that a regular season game does, especially for some of these smaller schools. Go to the 'Live Odds' under whichever sport you want to look at and they show the current lines at like different sports books. They also show what the Opening Line was so you can kind of see how much the average line moves, and they also offer a Line Graph to plot the change in line over time.
Best thing to do is to understand line movement. Most lines move in one direction, reach and surpass the even point, then settle back. So you wake up to So if you were to see the Line Quickly move from to , you can after awhile realize that it's going to keep moving.
So you hop on at and hop off once you see it start to bend back the other way at If so, you're guaranteed money! I hardly ever see a line where the underdog payout is more than the favorite is ie. I assume this is where multiple books and paying attention to line movement is key? Great AMA btw. There's 2 types of bets, there's the "Sure Things" and the one's that rely on Movement.
Sure Things make up most of my bets and are the least exciting of all wagers. The profit is extremely low, but zero risk, so why complain? The movement bets are a little more tricky. Prior to commiting to a game, you always want to pick a book that offers the best value for the favorite along with another that offers the best value on the underdog. Most of the time, the lines will move equally between books, once the betting starts i.
Right on thanks. One more for ya NHL brought back the penalty shootout, so no more ties there. I know a team gets a point for losing the shootout still, but it's still considered as a loss in terms of betting. I always loved sports and my parents are big gamblers. My Sundays as a kid involved me watching football while my dad had his picks in front of him with his red pen circling all his losers.
I majored in Economics in college, and I absolutely dominated this Stock Market Game we did one semester, then realized really quickly, trading stocks is just like watching Sports lines move. Buy low, sell high.
I wouldn't say were disliked. Also, we're not doing anything wrong. You didn't lie, steal, or cheat the system in anyway. You just found 2 people with different demands for the same product and made a profitable business decision. Lastly, all each book will see is 1 bet on the given game. One casino will get your full bet when you lose, and the other will still collect "Juice" on your willing wager. Each is satisfied. I'm in bed, but the short of it is this. By arbing you are continuously taking 'over the odds'.
Profitable in the long run for the bettor, not for the bookie. It's bad business for the bookie to keep these kind of punters around. Sorry about the short answer, but I'll explain this in further detail tomorrow. Look forward to it. Seems like to me just buying a commodity and selling at a profit at the same time, which I've done, where everyone wins? Now keeping in mind, I am speaking from the point of view of an Australian Bookie whose main focus is Horse Racing.
A lot of this won't be applicable to some sports and anything American as from what I understand, Vegas drives most of the lines and don't really take Betfair into consideration. But here it goes:. Betfair is a place in which you can BACK a horse bet for it to win or LAY a horse take on the role as bookie, taking peoples stakes on various horses, offering them odds. Keep the money if horse loses, payout if horse wins. Now in Australia, Betfair is the strongest indicator of the market price.
It's the best guide and pretty much all bookies and most bettors with half a clue will be referring to Betfair when deciding on what to back. So as a bookie, I am always looking at Betfair when offering prices on a race. I make sure to stay under whatever Betfair is offering, because if I am giving 5.
The following can occur:. Now that's traditionally known as a 'back to lay' proposition. It's essentially a free bet, because worst case scenario you will square up, if the horse wins you make a small profit. So in this case:. So just depending on how much you stake and the price you can back and lay, you can either just keep having 'free bets' or ensure small profits each time.
NOW, in saying all of this, you are probably wondering why bookies don't appreciate people who bet like this. First and foremost: Bookies have the right to either restrict someones account eg: offering same odds but much reduced staking limits or banning their account altogether. This may some unfair and what not, but at the end of the day, bookmaking is a business like any else.
So in saying that, why is arbing so bad? In Australia, if a horses price dramatically shortens on Betfair, that's usually a good indicator that it is going to be running quite well. Obviously it isn't a formality that the horse wins as anything can happen in horse racing or any sport , but considering the amount of sharp punters on Betfair, if people are lining up to take a price about a certain horse, it will more than likely run a good race.
SO, by punters taking a price with a bookie and then laying it back much shorter on Betfair, this proves worrying for the bookie because a The horse has a good chance of winning, and b The punter has taken a much larger price than what the horse started the race at 'Starting Price', which is a much more accurate indication of what price the horse "should have been".
It's 'true price' I guess you could call it. So to have someone continuously take bigger prices than what the SP is, it's pretty obvious that it can't be profitable for the bookie in the long run. If you've got anymore questions, shoot :. I hear you, and that's why I was curious. Just wondering why that was. I really don't know what else I can do or show to "Prove" this. To accomplish this they assign a line or spread to make the contest equally attractive for both sides.
Many people believe that the point spread is the predicted margin of victory by which one team will beat another team. This is not true. For this reason, the line may change from the opening line to the line at game time. The Sportsbooks goal is to have the betting as evenly as possible.
If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team then the odds makers need to adjust the line to get some action on the other team. Otherwise, the betting would be heavily lopsided. The general betting public reacts to the opinions of others.
A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper meaning that the odds are in his favor. For example Team A should be a 3 point underdog to Team B, however, The public loves Team A and are betting on them and the line moves to make Team A a one-point favorite, then Team B becomes an excellent bet.
This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public. A winning handicapper formulates his own opinions about the game and ignores most of the public sentiment. A handicapper takes information from numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it.
They will make their own power ranking and predict what the point spread should be without looking at the official line first, and then compare their predictions to the line to look at discrepancies. A large amount of data available via the internet and other sources means that the handicapper has more information but it means there is more to sift through to find the gems.
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So here are some of the basics — as well as some more esoteric aspects — of betting on sports. Illegal bookies will let you bet on credit, the most appealing aspect of their illicit business and one that is expected to allow them to continue to operate, and perhaps still thrive, in the brave new world of sports betting.
Oddsmakers try to set betting lines as precisely as possible to attract an equal amount wagered on each team involved in a particular game. They use money from losing bets to pay off people who make winning bets, while keeping a percentage for themselves.
One of the most popular ways to bet on sports is through the point spread. If the Seattle Seahawks are favored by 4 points against the Minnesota Vikings, Seattle must win by 5 for a Seahawks bettor to win his or her wager. A final margin of exactly 4 points for Seattle is considered a push, meaning the bets are refunded. You can also do a money line bet that does not involve a point spread. Instead, simply choose the team you think will win.
Big underdogs pay off well, but only if that team wins the game. Gamblers bet whether the combined final score will exceed that number or fall short. Change it. It must be applied to combined wagers on two or more games, or at least two bets on the same game. For instance, if the New York Giants are favored by 3 points over the Washington Redskins, and the Los Angeles Chargers are favored over the Baltimore Ravens by 2 points, a gambler using a 6-point teaser can lower the line on the Giants game to have the Giants as a 3-point underdog instead of a 3-point favorite getting 3 points instead of giving 3 , and the Chargers as a 4-point underdog instead of a 2-point favorite getting 4 points instead of giving 2.
Lines can be adjusted upward or downward, and they can involve multiple games. The catch here is that ALL bets in a teaser must win; if even one does not, the entire betting ticket is a loser. This is one of the places gamblers can get crazy. To boost the payoff on a bet, gamblers can string together a series of bets on multiple games, or multiple bets within the same game.
This is called a parlay. It is a way to potentially win a lot of money for a small bet. But these bets are frequently losers. If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team then the odds makers need to adjust the line to get some action on the other team. Otherwise, the betting would be heavily lopsided.
The general betting public reacts to the opinions of others. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper meaning that the odds are in his favor.
For example Team A should be a 3 point underdog to Team B, however, The public loves Team A and are betting on them and the line moves to make Team A a one-point favorite, then Team B becomes an excellent bet. This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public. A winning handicapper formulates his own opinions about the game and ignores most of the public sentiment.
A handicapper takes information from numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it. They will make their own power ranking and predict what the point spread should be without looking at the official line first, and then compare their predictions to the line to look at discrepancies.
A large amount of data available via the internet and other sources means that the handicapper has more information but it means there is more to sift through to find the gems. The use of computer programs can help when searching through the data. Like any other endeavor, it takes time, patience and practice to become successful. A person of average intelligence can become a winning handicapper if they have the desire. Based on the odds of for a straight football or basketball bet a handicapper only need to be right The chart below shows the break-even points for the various odds you will encounter when you make a bet on the money line.
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