Unfortunately, things with staking systems are not so simple when you start putting your money in bookmakers:. If you religiously follow the Kelly staking system , you are increasing your chances to have your account limited. Betting with round numbers e. Estimating fair value is not that simple — one of the biggest stumbling blocks is that in fact, even if you are great at implementing value betting into account numerous factors when calculating betting odds , estimating risk with precision is not all that easy.
The Kelly staking system is also promoting taking on excessive risk. In reality, this is a very high percentage! Even in cases when they believe the correct odds are 1. The Kelly staking system in that specific case would suggest you should stake As a practical benchmark, you can compare the odds you have staked on to the ones Pinnacle Sports offers just before kick-off.
For example, if you bet on Everton to beat Swansea at odds of 1. Being a professional bettor is not easy at all! Using the Kelly staking system, you are also quite vulnerable to losing streaks, as after your poor run is over, you will have a much lower bankroll to recover your loses. Although applying the Kelly staking system in practice has its drawbacks, we should definitely consider using it, albeit with lower percentage e. The reason for using that staking system it makes us more disciplined and conscious and helps us think about two crucial factors:.
The current size of our bankroll. It could be an arduous task to keep track of how much money you have in you bookmakers but using a smart bet tracker can automatically take care of that! The risk we are taking on every time we invest in a sport event. Every time you stake, you can lose. Use auto bet tracking to learn from your mistakes and think about whether you can afford to invest at all!
Nikola Baltov is a highly renowned professional tipster with 4 years of experience in the industry. Please note that any previews, recommendations or information available on the Betting. All betting activities do involve risk, please bet with funds that you can afford to lose. Bonuses and Free Bets. Tips and Predictions. Betting Odds. Portfolio Software. Tipster Competition.
Historical results are not an indication of future results. The information on betting. Values quoted on the site hold no real or implied value. Staking plans ranked from best to worst - Betting. What staking systems are out there? Fixed staking system - the assumption is that you always bet the same amount e. Comparison of the staking systems. Results: As we can see, if we have an edge over the bookmakers, even if we hit a poor run, we can recover quickly by using the Kelly staking system and gain good money in the long-run!
The verdict. Given the current results from a large sample of bets, we can confidently conclude two things: Progressive staking systems will run you to the ground, even if you are a prudent bettor. Thus, we can confidently say that Labouchere, Martingale and Fibonacci are the top 3 worst staking systems we can argue about the order - it is not relevant at all though!
Given they are so awful, why are we even talking about them? Adjusted staking seems to appear better than the Fixed staking system, as it takes into account the size of your bankroll. However, Kelly looks superior to Adjusted staking, as it takes into account both expected value and the size of your betting bankroll. This is the reason why professional tipsters these staking systems when they advise their followers! For simplicity, most tipsters use units — thus you can be confident that if an advisor always bets with a flat stake e.
Unfortunately, things with staking systems are not so simple when you start putting your money in bookmakers: A. Remedy: use whole numbers to avoid getting limited e. Final thoughts. Each staking plan has its own chapter that shows the best settings, a walkthrough of how to use it, a simple summary table with pros and cons listed and detailed analysis of the staking plan applied to various types of betting system. Each staking plan was tested with 7 different artificial data sets of 10, bets and 1 artificial data set of 60, bets with different odds levels.
Each plan was also checked with real betting strategies taken from Betaminic. Each of those data sets were also put through 1, Monte Carlo Simulations to make sure the results were not just due to luck. All staking plans were ranked based on their efficiency when used with a point bank. It also includes advice on when to take out profit from a system.
This is probably the most thorough examination of staking plans ever undertaken. Now, we can exclusively share the ranking of the top 6 and the correct settings for the 2 nd best ranked staking plan. We also share three important key points learned from the book. This article will change your betting style forever. It takes advantage of consistent betting systems by betting more when a system is doing worse than it has done historically and betting less when it is doing better than it has done historically.
For this reason it is of interest to Betaminic Users, but it is more complicated than other staking plans. You can vary the percentage increase and you can vary the number of bets to judge it over. You can also have staggered increases as the win rate can be judged over the last 5, 10, 20, 30 or 50 bets, and different percentage increases allotted for each period.
You can also decrease stakes when above the historical win rate. There is a very wide number of setting possibilities, so research is needed, or you can see the best settings in the book. This staking plan introduces an element of recovery to percentage staking. It is essentially a very slow and gradual progressive recovery system.
The LP28 series looks like this: An easier way to think of it is , which is the number of losses until an increase in stakes occurs. In theory, if you lose 28 bets in a row, it comes to the end of the series and we reset back to the start. Percentage Staking is easy to use and protects the bank. You bet more as your bank increases and bet less if the bank gets depleted.
But by staking different percentages depending on the average odds of your betting system, even better results can be achieved. Again, the correct settings are needed. This method focuses on the output, not the input. The stake is adjusted so that a target profit is achieved. You win the same profit each time whatever the odds are. If there are big odds, you bet less to win the same as betting a large stake on lower odds. Betting more on safer bets and less on riskier bets. This uses betting capital more efficiently.
Secure Staking uses different percentages for different odds bands. Since it is odds sensitive, the betting capital is used efficiently. It is simple to use and protects the bank due to its percentage staking aspect. The important part is knowing the correct settings, which we can share below in this article. Whitaker Staking takes the best aspects of Secure Staking, Target Profit Staking and Percentage Staking to create the most capital efficient staking plan ever made. You just stake according to the odds of your next bet as a proportion of your current betting bank.
By staking different amounts depending on the odds band, the betting capital is used in the best way. This new staking plan is being added to the The Staking Machine software as an addition to the Secure Staking plan settings, so you can test betting strategies by running the historical data through the program.
For a more detailed explanation and the correct settings, please see the book. It is important to adjust the stake size to match the risk of bets. It is much more efficient to use a staking plan that varies the size of stakes in direct relation to the odds of the bet Whitaker Staking and Secure Staking , or to use different staking plans for different odds brackets to indirectly vary the size of stakes in relation to the odds.
In the very simplest terms, bet more on lower odds and bet less on higher odds. Avoid simple recovery plans that increase stakes in direct connection to previous lost bets in a simple progressive recovery plan. See our article: Martingale, Fibonacci and other staking plans you should not use.
That kind of stake focussed recovery betting ends up being less efficient as the initial stake levels are pushed lower to avoid bankruptcy later on, so the overall profit will be lower than with other non-recovery staking plans. Betting systems with higher average odds are harder to multiply profits with staking plans than with lower average odds betting systems.
Any betting system that has a low win rate, waiting for high odds winners over odds of 7. Given that the Longshot-Favorite Bias has been proved in a previous article and there is a lower bookmaker margin to be overcome, lower odds football systems are the best way forward rather than higher odds longshot horse racing tips or other high odds systems.
It is good to know the 2 nd best staking plan, it is even better to know the correct settings to use with that staking plan. Secure staking is a non-recovery, odds sensitive staking plan that ticks both of the boxes from two of the key points mentioned just above.
To use the Secure Staking plan is simple. If your bet has odds in the range of 1. But these settings were created from 1, Monte Carlo Simulations using both artificial data sets of 10, bets and also real betting systems to test what settings get the most efficiency out of a betting bank without increasing the risks of bankruptcy.
If your bet has odds of 1.
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